Virginia commission proceeding examines utility load forecast inputs

Data centre concentration in Northern Virginia has moved load forecasting from a technical annex to the centre of utility regulation before the State Corporation Commission. Integrated resource planning and rate proceedings both turn on whether announced load materialises.

The regulatory difficulty is that a forecast built on customer requests double counts. A single project may hold requests with multiple utilities and at multiple sites while committing to one. Utilities respond by applying probability weightings; intervenors respond by disputing them.

The stakes are structural rather than presentational. A forecast that is accepted supports capital expenditure, generation procurement and transmission requests. A forecast that is discounted defers them, and the deferral becomes an interconnection delay two or three years later.

The emerging regulatory instrument is the large load tariff, which conditions service on contract term, minimum take, and collateral. That instrument converts a forecasting dispute into a commercial one, which is the only form in which it can be resolved.

What to watch: whether contract terms in approved large load tariffs are long enough to underwrite the generation they imply.